By Dr. Toku (DVM) | Japan Racing Daily Date: December 29, 2025
The final battle of 2025 is here.
Welcome to the 71st Tokyo Daishoten (G1). This isn’t just another race; it is the “Grand Prix of Dirt Racing,” the definitive conclusion to the Japanese racing calendar. While the Arima Kinen captures the hearts of turf fans, the Tokyo Daishoten determines the true king of the dirt.
For our international readers, it is crucial to understand the venue. This race is held at Ohi Racecourse (TCK), a National Association of Racing (NAR) track, not a JRA track. The sand here is significantly deeper and “heavier” than what you see at Tokyo or Kyoto. It demands not just speed, but immense torque and muscular endurance. A horse that glides over JRA dirt often bogs down here at Ohi.
Today, the track condition is Good (Standard). This means the sand is dry and loose. There will be no “easy speed” assisted by moisture. Today is a test of raw power.
Watch the Final Workouts
Before we dive into the veterinary analysis, take a look at how the contenders moved in their final training sessions.
Dr. Toku’s Note: Pay attention to the hind leg extension. On this deep surface, horses with a “choppy” stride often struggle. Look for fluid, powerful drive from the hips.
Dr. Toku’s Vet Analysis: The Contenders
As a veterinarian, I look beyond the past results. I look at the physical mechanics, the recovery intervals, and the pedigree compatibility with the surface. Here is how the key players shape up for the 2000m test.
The Favorite: #13 Mickey Fight (JRA)
- Jockey: C. Lemaire
- Odds: 1.8
The 4-year-old colt enters this race as the heavy favorite, and for good reason. He is now entering his absolute physical prime.
The “Prime Age” Factor:
At 4 years old, a dirt horse’s skeletal and muscular frame is fully developed. Unlike his 3-year-old season, Mickey Fight now possesses the “finished” body of a G1 contender. His recent 3rd place finish in the Champions Cup (G1) on December 7 proved he can trade blows with the very best in Japan.
Suitability for Ohi:
As a son of Drefong, he possesses thick, resilient muscle fibers ideal for power-sapping surfaces. While the interval from the Champions Cup is tight, his recovery capacity as a 4-year-old is superior to when he was younger. His Dam’s Sire, Special Week, provides the underlying stamina needed to endure the long 2000m stretch at Ohi. Physically, he is the most complete athlete in this field.
The Rival: #3 Naru Ka Mi (JRA)
- Jockey: K. Tosaki
- Odds: 3.7
Keita Tosaki is a master of Ohi Racecourse (his former home ground), and he knows exactly where to position a horse to save energy. Naru Ka Mi has the mechanical stride to handle the grit of Ohi, but he must avoid getting trapped on the rail early.
The Legend: #1 Natural Rise (JRA)
- Jockey: Yutaka Take
- Odds: 6.8
Drawing the #1 gate on a dirt track can be a double-edged sword—you save ground, but you risk getting buried under the “kickback” (flying sand) of the pack. However, with the legendary Yutaka Take in the saddle, this is less of a concern. Take is a master of pace judgment. Veterinary-wise, Natural Rise looks fit, but he will need to break sharply to avoid being swallowed by the heavy traffic.
Dr. Toku’s Verdict
The Ohi 2000m is an unforgiving stage. Based on the track condition (Good) and physical maturity, I am siding with the class and power of the favorite.
My prediction for the Tokyo Daishoten 2025:
| Bet Type | Horse No. | Name | Dr. Toku’s Comment |
| WIN | #13 | Mickey Fight | Proven class from the Champions Cup. His Drefong power is perfectly suited for Ohi’s deep sand. Lemaire will likely keep him in a clear, stalking position. |
| PLACE | #3 | Naru Ka Mi | A reliable contender who handles the surface well. Tosaki’s course knowledge makes him a safe bet for the board. |
| LONGSHOT | #15 | Out Range | (Odds 9.0) Don’t ignore him. The outer draw (#15) allows him to run freely without taking sand in the face. On a dry track, a smooth, wide trip can often upset the inside runners who get stuck in traffic. |
The Strategy:
The “Good” track favors power. I expect Mickey Fight to utilize his developed 4-year-old frame to assert dominance at the 200m pole. Out Range is my value pick to crash the party for the exotic tickets (Trifecta/Exacta).
Good luck with your final bet of 2025! Let’s end the year with a winner.
Disclaimer: Racing analysis is based on veterinary opinion and past data. Please gamble responsibly.
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