The 60th Shinzan Kinen (G3) is traditionally the first major stepping stone for three-year-olds aiming for the Spring Classics. As I sat down to write my preview article earlier this week, I focused on the established form lines. I must start this review with a confession: I completely underestimated Thunderstruck.
The 9th favorite, ridden by Thore Hammer-Hansen, didn’t just win; he shattered expectations and the clock, crossing the line in a Race Record of 1:33.4. For Hammer-Hansen, it was a memorable first JRA Group race victory, executed with tactical brilliance. But for me, watching through the lens of a veterinarian, this race was a fascinating case study in equine development, the impact of equipment changes, and raw physical potential.
In this deep-dive review, I want to move beyond the simple result and analyze why Thunderstruck transformed from an overlooked contender into a record-breaker, and what his physical condition tells us about his future.
The “Blinkers Effect”: A Mental Transformation
The most critical factor in Thunderstruck’s sudden improvement was undoubtedly the first-time application of blinkers. But why did this piece of tack make such a drastic difference?
From a behavioral standpoint, horses are prey animals with panoramic vision. Young thoroughbreds often get distracted by the movement of other horses or the crowd, triggering a “flight” response or simple lack of focus. Thunderstruck has previously shown a tendency to lose concentration. The blinkers restricted his peripheral vision, forcing him to focus solely on the path ahead.
The Result: Instead of fighting his rider or looking around, he settled into a rhythm. This allowed him to conserve massive amounts of mental and physical energy during the middle stages of the race—energy that was unleashed in the final furlong.
However, the gear change did not cure everything.
- Mouth Issues: Even at the start, he showed signs of a “bad mouth,” fighting against the bit.
- Drifting (Hanging): In the final stretch, while his speed was impressive, he drifted significantly to the outside.
As a vet, I interpret this drifting not as a sign of lameness, but as a sign of mental greenness and imbalance. He is still learning how to channel his massive power in a straight line. The blinkers fixed the focus, but the steering still needs work.
The Engine Room: Analyzing the 1:33.4 Record
A time of 1:33.4 in early January is extraordinary. Usually, running such a fast time on a firm track carries a high risk of orthopedic injury, especially for a young horse with developing skeletal maturity.
The “Kerotto” Phenomenon What stunned me most wasn’t the time itself, but Thunderstruck’s condition immediately after the race. In Japanese horse racing circles, we use the onomatopoeia “Kerotto” (ケロッと) to describe a horse that looks completely unfazed and energetic after a race. Despite the record pace, Thunderstruck returned to the unsaddling enclosure looking fresh. He wasn’t gasping for air; his flanks weren’t heaving with exhaustion.
Veterinary Insight: This rapid recovery suggests an elite level of cardiopulmonary function. His heart rate likely returned to resting levels much faster than his rivals. It indicates he has a “big engine” (high VO2 max) that wasn’t even fully taxed by a Group 3 record pace. This natural stamina is a weapon that cannot be taught.
Physique & Conformation: The 524kg Advantage
Thunderstruck weighed in at 524kg (+4kg). For a three-year-old colt in the middle of winter, this is a significant size. Often, a “heavy” horse is viewed with skepticism—is it fat? Is he too bulky for his joints?
Muscle vs. Fat: The +4kg increase here appears to be purely positive growth. At this age, colts are going through a rapid development phase. His frame is filling out with muscle, not winter fat. On the Kyoto outer course, which features a downhill slope into the straight, a larger horse has a biomechanical advantage regarding momentum. Once a 524kg mass gets moving, it generates tremendous kinetic energy.
While heavy horses are at higher risk for tendon injuries on fast ground, Thunderstruck’s stride appeared buoyant and elastic. He didn’t “pound” the ground; he glided over it. This efficiency is what allowed him to handle the firm track without apparent damage.
The Losers: What Happened to Monopolio?
We must also address the favorite, Monopolio, who finished a disappointing 5th. Visually, his trip was perfect. He had no traffic excuses. So, why did he fail to fire?
The Weight Factor (-10kg): Monopolio dropped 10kg from his previous start. While racehorses are athletes, significant weight loss in the cold winter months can be a red flag. It may indicate:
- Metabolic Stress: He may have burned too much energy keeping warm or stressing in the stable.
- Dehydration: Sometimes weight loss is water loss, which cripples performance.
From my observation, he simply lacked the “punch” required at the Group level. He may need time to physically mature and regain condition before he can challenge the top tier again.
Future Prognosis: The Road to the NHK Mile Cup
So, is Thunderstruck the next superstar? Yes and No.
The Good:
- His “Engine” is Grade 1 quality.
- He can handle high-speed setups.
The Concerns:
- Distance Limit: His closing sectional (last 3 furlongs) was 34.4 seconds. This is fast, but it is a “sustained speed” rather than the “explosive burst” we often see from Deep Impact descendants. Combined with his tendency to hang and fight the bit, stretching him to 2000m or 2400m (The Derby distance) would be risky. He might become too keen and burn out.
- Mental Reliance: Relying on blinkers this early can be a double-edged sword. If he gets used to them, what is the next step to improve focus?
Dr. Toku’s Verdict: Thunderstruck is a specialist in the making. The NHK Mile Cup (G1) in May seems like the perfect target. He has the power to dominate the mile category, provided his team can iron out his steering issues and keep his mind focused.
For now, we celebrate a new record holder. He proved me wrong today, and I’ll be watching his next move—and his paddock behavior—very closely.
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